Pollster Scott Rasmussen’s Predictions for 2024 Election

With just eight days until Election Day, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are making their final sprint to win over voters in the seven crucial swing states.

According to the latest RealClearPolitics polling average, Trump holds a razor-thin lead in each of those states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—and has surpassed Harris nationally as well.

That’s led one veteran pollster to give Trump the edge in the 2024 presidential election.

“If the election were held today, Donald Trump would be likely to win,” RMG Research President Scott Rasmussen told The Daily Signal. “Now, I say that with some caution. It’s not a sure thing.”

Rasmussen noted the latest swing-state polls fall within the margin of error. He also warned that unknown factors—such as an Election Day blizzard in Wisconsin—could change Trump’s trajectory.

Watch or listen to the full interview with Rasmussen the latest episode of “The Daily Signal Podcast.”

Rasmussen’s polls are available from the Napolitan News Service, an organization he founded this year. In addition to looking at the contested political races, Rasmussen is also keeping tabs on the issues that motivate voters, namely the economy.

“Right now, people tend to think their personal finances are getting worse and people in the swing states are even more pessimistic,” Rasmussen said. “That’s hurting Vice President Harris.”

For example, only 24% of voters say their personal finances are improving, according to RMG Research’s polling. Conversely, 41% say their personal finances are worse. Relatedly, 37% say they are better off than they were four years ago.

“People’s perception of whether their personal finances are improving is the single most important indicator of how they will vote,” Rasmussen said.

Given the political divide in our country, Rasmussen said Americans should prepare for a close election—and for the losing side to reject the outcome. He noted that 60% of Democrats still believe Hillary Clinton won the 2016 election, while 65% of Republicans believe Trump won in 2020.

“The safest prediction you can make is that the losing team this year, whichever side it is, will believe that the other team stole the election,” Rasmussen said. “There’s only one thing that’s going to restore trust in our electoral system, and that’s a landslide.”

Watch the full interview to learn more about Rasmussen’s latest polling, some late-breaking surprises, and the top Senate races he’s following.