Dems Eye Senate Pickup Opportunity in Bruising Texas GOP Primary Battle

The 2026 Senate race in Texas will be another dramatic showdown, with Democrats again eyeing a major pickup opportunity amid Republican infighting.

On Tuesday, Democrat former Rep. Colin Allred launched his 2026 Senate campaign, a comeback bid after losing to Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, by 8.5 points in 2024. 

The announcement followed a meeting between Allred, former Rep. Beto O’Rourke, Rep. Joaquin Castro, and state Rep. James Talarico, as reported by The Dallas Morning News. All four were seen as potential Senate candidates.

Allred jumped into the race as incumbent Republican Sen. John Cornyn faces a major primary challenge in his bid for a fifth term from state Attorney General Ken Paxton. Paxton has accused Cornyn of being insufficiently conservative, while Cornyn has consistently denigrated Paxton’s character over past corruption probes.

In a number of early polls, Paxton is ahead of Cornyn by double-digit margins.

A May poll from the American Opportunity Alliance showed Cornyn trailing Paxton by 17 points among Republican primary voters in a matchup between the two. A June poll sponsored by a pro-Paxton political committee showed Paxton with a 19-point lead of 57% to 38%.

But Cornyn argues that a Paxton victory could hand the seat to Democrats.

“We’re going to end up spending hundreds of millions of dollars, potentially, on this race in Texas, because we can’t lose the seat,” he said in April.

Despite tough primary polls, Cornyn beats Paxton in some prospective general election surveys.

A Senate Leadership Fund-sponsored poll from May reported on by Punchbowl News showed Cornyn leading Allred by 6 points in a hypothetical matchup, while Paxton trails Allred by 1 point.

Rep. Wesley Hunt, R-Texas, who has not yet entered the primary, leads Allred by 4 points in the same poll. Hunt “has met with White House aides about entering the Texas Senate primary,” The Associated Press reported in late April.

Neither President Donald Trump nor Cruz has endorsed a candidate in the primary.

Losing Texas to the Democratic Party, in addition to being a major blow for Republicans in a state that hasn’t elected a Democrat statewide since 1994, could also imperil the Senate Republican majority, as the GOP also faces tough Senate races next year to hold seats in North Carolina and Maine. 

At the same time, however, there are promising Senate seat pickup opportunities for Republicans in states such as Georgia, New Hampshire, and Michigan.